Obamaha: NE-2

Although still unofficial, the Omaha World-Herald is calling the Nebraska second congressional district for Barack Obama:

Obama won 8,434 of 15,039 mail-in ballots counted Friday by Douglas County election officials. These early ballots arrived in the election commissioner’s office too late to be included in Tuesday’s election results.

The additional votes gave Obama a 1,260-vote lead over Republican John McCain in unofficial returns. McCain won the popular vote statewide and four electoral votes.

About 5,000 provisional ballots in Douglas County remain to be counted next week, but they are unlikely to change the 2nd District outcome. About half of such ballots typically are disqualified.

I’m very curious if this will have any influence on discussions about Electoral College reform (or if there will be any discussions at all).   How exciting, though!

Disproportionate

One reason why the Electoral College will never be abolished: small-population states would lose the enormously disproportionate influence they have and would fight to the death to protect it.   The New York Times posted this map (larger image):

electoral college

The NYT notes:

This map shows each state re-sized in proportion to the relative influence of the individual voters who live there. The numbers indicate the total delegates to the Electoral College from each state, and how many eligible voters a single delegate from each state represents.

Behind the Scenes

A great set of photos from behind the scenes of the Obama campaign on election night.

(Nod: Political Wire)

Not Red States or Blue States

Mark Newman at the University of Michigan Department of Physics and Center for the Study of Complex Systems has a very interesting set of maps from the 2008 and 2004 election.   Here is the county map from 2008:

counties2008

And from 2004:

counties2004

Title Sequence: Mimic

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnNEPeVlujs

Designed by: Kyle Cooper
Year: 1997

Bread Runner

Awesome commercial for Hovis Bakery runs through a history of the UK in the 20th century.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cv4c4ER8Pzo

Looking to the Future

One of the best stories I read from voting day was this one.   I can’t quote it; you have to read the whole thing.

And this story falls into an interesting data point discussed by Nate Silver: Barack Obama outperformed John Kerry among parents.

Conversley [sic], there is a hidden source of strength in this table that hasn’t been talked much about before: Obama markedly overperformed Kerry among parents. In a sense, it was those people who have most reason to be concerned about the future who voted for Obama: people who are young themeslves, or people who have young children at home.

“I Deserve the Right to Party with Putin”

A presidential debate remix:

Created Equal

Tom Toles:

toles

NE-2

Nebraska, since 1992, uses a congressional district allocation method to allocate its electoral votes.   Maine, since 1972, also uses this method.   Nebraska has three congressional districts; add two electoral votes for the two U.S. Senators, and Nebraska has five electoral votes.

Here’s how the congressional district method works. Candidates receive one electoral vote for each congressional district won.   The popular vote winner in the state gets the remaining two.

Never have either Nebraska or Maine actually split their electoral vote.   This year, however, could be different in the Cornhusker State.   The Nebraska Second Congressional District, as of this writing, is up for grabs.   Omaha is in NE-2, and according to WOWT in Omaha:

Barack Obama trails John McCain by 569 votes in unofficial returns from the district.

Election officials estimate there are 9,000 uncounted provisional and absentee ballots in Douglas County alone. Sarpy County estimates there are 1,000 provisionals yet to be counted. Counties have seven days to verify and count the remaining ballots.

This, of course, is of particular interest to me after my thesis project on the Electoral College charted results of past presidential elections using the district allocation method.

Whether or not NE-2 goes for Obama, the possibility is exciting for political junkies like me.

(Side note: once all vote returns are processed in the several states, I will be updating my thesis to include 2008 election data!)

The McCain Belt

Matthew Yglesias posts this map from the New York Times:

mccain belt

Andrew Sullivan adds this:

Ah, yes, Appalachia and Arkansas. Obviously concerned about marginal tax rates for those earning over $250,000 a year, I suppose.

A Third Thought

John McCain’s concession speech last night was gracious and classy.   If that were the John McCain who ran for president, might things have turned out differently?

A Second Thought

I’ve heard a few times CNN anchors saying people everywhere were gathered, cheering, and “celebrating like it was New Year’s Eve.”   In other words, celebrating an opportunity to start anew.

A Thought

Is it OK to say “it’s morning again in America“?

“This Is Our Moment”

obama

After the tumultuous several years past, a new hope and a new promise is on the horizon. Not the hope and promise of a politician, but the hope and promise of a people dedicated to righting wrongs and committed to bettering a nation. America, the dream lives on.

Excerpts from President-Elect Obama’s election night speech in Chicago below. You can read the whole thing here.

It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.

It’s the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.

It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can’t solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way it’s been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?

This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:

Yes We Can. Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America

Yes. We. Can.

(Photo: Daniel Schwen/Wikipedia Commons)

YES WE DID

obama biden

A moment for our country, the world, and the ages.

One Day = Today

What This Election Is About

Rosa sat so Martin could walk.
Martin walked so Obama could run.
Obama is running so our children can fly.

(Nod: DemConWatch)

Make History Today

Barack ‘n’ Roll

Why I Support Barack Obama

obama rally

When President Bush stood atop a pile of rubble at Ground Zero and told the rescue volunteers the rest of the world would soon hear us, he had me.   When he went before Congress and the American people and spoke of either being with us or against us, he had me.   He had me feeling so patriotic, so American, that as I walked around my college campus I had an American flag sticking out of my book bag for months.   I supported the president.   I was patriotic.   I was proud to be an American.

But then the president threw it all away.   He lost me.   He lost me with the Iraq war and the false reasons for fighting, the poor planning and execution, and the lack of a responsible exit strategy.   He lost me with his government-sponsored torture programs and the indefinite detentions and lack of indictments of “enemy combatants.”   He lost me with his disastrous lack of a response and coherent leadership after Hurricane Katrina.   He lost me with his countless assaults on the environment and what is essentially his war on science.   He lost me with his warrantless wiretappings, his signing statements, and his trashing of the separation of powers with his unitary executive doctrine and his stonewalling of Congress and ignoring of subpoenas and contempt citations.   He lost me with his farcical war on terror and his failure to capture Osama bin Laden “dead or alive.”   He lost me with threatening a war with Iran after he had severely weakened U.S. armed forces by stretching them thin and not sending them into battle fully supported, prepared, and supplied.   He lost me with the deterioration of America’s image abroad.   He lost me with Alberto Gonzales, Donald Rumsfeld, and Dick Cheney.   He lost me with Karl Rove and their tactics of divisive slash and burn politics.   President Bush lost me.   I lost my faith in the presidency, my faith in government, and my faith in America.

But then something changed that rather someone changed that.   On a cold February morning last year in Springfield, Illinois, a young, vivacious senator invited us to fight with him for change and to restore America’s greatness.   Barack Obama gave me hope, and he gave me inspiration, and that is why I support him to be the 44th President of the United States of America.

After so many years of disillusionment and cynicism toward government and politics, feeling inspired was a welcomed change for me.   Our leaders should inspire us.   They should inspire us to work for the common good of our country.   They should inspire us to see hope in ourselves and each other.   They should inspire us to fight for and work hard to achieve that good and that hope.   Our leaders should inspire us not to serve them but to serve each other.

Our leaders should inspire us to work for the much needed and much discussed change we need from securing our future by ridding our dependence on fossil fuels to investing in quality, affordable health care for all to strengthening our educational system and providing teachers and students with the tools and support they need for success to engaging in a responsible foreign policy that returns America to the respectable stature we once held.

And beyond the political issues to change our futures come the inspirational issues to alter generations for young African-American children to have a role model in Barack Obama who isn’t a Hollywood celebrity, hip-hop musician, or sports superstar; for citizens of the world to see in Barack Obama a new face on America; and for us to see in Barack Obama not the color of his skin but the content of his character.

His character is his experience the experience of strong judgment, the experience of intellectual curiosity, the experience of sound vision, and the experience of a ferocious calmness in the face of crisis.

What Barack Obama has taught me inspired in me is that we have the power to effect our future, to break free of the partisan shackles that have bound us to bitter divisiveness.   We have the ability to shout to those who clamor for status quo that we are tired of more-of-the-same, that we are ready for something bold and something new.   We are ready not to be blindly led and told what someone else can do for us, but instead we are ready for what someone else can do with us; we are ready for what we can do for each other by joining together with Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

We can move past that which divides us to form a more perfect Union.

We can create a new birth of freedom in America.

We can ask what we can do for America.

We can fix what is wrong in America with what is right in America.

We can heal this nation and repair this world.

Yes, we can.

Yes, We Can

Worth watching one more time.

Vote

Please remember to vote tomorrow, no matter how busy you are, no matter how long the lines are.

(Nod: Patrick)

“And That’s… Not the Change We Need”

Probably not the endorsement John McCain wanted:

The Obama camp was quick to pounce:

Title Sequence: The Kite Runner

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2itQ5U5XcHM

Designed by: MK12
Year: 2007